Forecasting The Amount of Tuna/Madidihang (Yellowfin tuna) Landed in PPS Kutaraja Banda Aceh City With The Triple Exponential Smoothing Method

Muhammad Haikal Nasution; Samsul Anwar; Aida Fitri; Aja Fatimah Zohra

doi:10.35316/jsapi.v10i1.231

Muhammad Haikal Nasution Jurusan Statistika Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh
Samsul Anwar Jurusan Statistika Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh
Aida Fitri Jurusan Statistika Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh
Aja Fatimah Zohra Jurusan Statistika Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh

10.35316/jsapi.v10i1.231

Keywords: forecasting, PPS Kutaraja, production of tuna/madidihang (yellowfin tuna), triple exponential smoothing

Abstract

The Kutaraja Ocean Fisheries Port (PPS) located in Banda Aceh City is central to the fisheries sector in Aceh Province. Various types of fish have been landed at Kutaraja PPS, one of which is tuna/madidihang (yellowfin tuna). Tuna is not only in demand by the local market, but also international markets, especially Japan and America. This study aims to estimate the amount of tuna/madidihang (yellowfin tuna) production landed at Kutaraja PPS in 2018 and 2019. These estimates can help the Aceh Government in controlling the ordering of tuna/madidihang (yellowfin tuna) from within and outside the country, so that the number of tuna/madidihang (yellowfin tuna) caught and ordered can be balanced so that stock control can run well. The forecasting method used in this study is the Triple Exponential Smoothing method by using monthly data on the amount of tuna/madidihang (yellowfin tuna) production landed at Kutaraja PPS from January 2010 to December 2017. Based on the results of forecasting with the best models, the amount of tuna/madidihang (yellowfin tuna) production will landed in the Kutaraja PPS in 2018 and 2019 are predicted to be 2,395,615.8 Kg and 2,451,207.5 Kg respectively.

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